Probability (bad beat?)

Mad Max · by **Mad Max** » Tue May 25, 2004 6:23 pm GMT

This happened last night, and it pretty much wrecked me for the remainder of the session.

I'm dealt pocket 7's. No one raises before the flop. Flop comes Q 7 4. Im thinking great theres my set. I start betting and one kid calls me (who ive never played with before). He makes small bets and I keep raising him and he keeps calling me. The next two cards were rags and there was no flush or apparent straight on the table. I show my 3 sevens and he shows his pocket queens for THREE QUEENS.

What are the chances that two players each make a set on the flop?

Fat Tony · by **Fat Tony** » Tue May 25, 2004 6:25 pm GMT

it's not THAT unusual. (assuming a full table)

Always_Bored · by **Always_Bored** » Tue May 25, 2004 6:27 pm GMT

Ive seen it a few times before. I dont know what your odds are of it though.

Ive even seen it once in heads up.

Mad Max · by **Mad Max** » Tue May 25, 2004 6:38 pm GMT

yeah i guess its not that unusual, still sucks though

Always_Bored · by **Always_Bored** » Tue May 25, 2004 6:39 pm GMT

Mad Max wrote:yeah i guess its not that unusual, still sucks though

losing always sucks. Bad beat or not.

MLT_Slim · by **MLT_Slim** » Tue May 25, 2004 8:08 pm GMT

Figuring just the flop and not the probability of two players holding pocket pairs you just take the number of combos the two Q's and 7's can make. 4*3/2*1 = 6. Remove the QQ and the 77 and you get 6-2 = 4 two card combos that the two Q.s and 7,s can make. Each of those combos can combine with any of the 44 unknown cards (52 - the 4 Q's and the 4 7's) = 4 * 44 = 176. Divide that with the number of flop combos which is 48*47*46/3*2*1 = 17296= 176/17296= .0101 = 1%

Underbelly · by **Underbelly** » Tue Jun 08, 2004 12:48 pm GMT

Sounds like kid with 3Q's suckered you into that one!

boden12 · by **boden12** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 1:27 am GMT

One of the more exciting hands I saw was where three people next to each other had AA, KK and QQ with a flop of KQJ (all diamonds). Wow. The set of Kings held up as no more diamonds came and the turn and river were rags.

Ventrick · by **Ventrick** » Fri Jun 11, 2004 12:07 pm GMT

Not sure on the odds, but that isn't a Bad Beat. He had the nuts and he slow played you all the way. My friends used to call it Suck along.

Mad Max · by **Mad Max** » Fri Jun 11, 2004 1:32 pm GMT

I know but the kid was a joke. He doesn't even know what slow play means. Just dumb luck.

hookedupmonte · by **hookedupmonte** » Sun Jun 27, 2004 10:01 am GMT

in your original post u said u never played with the kid, then your last post u say he doesnt even know what slow playing is. Like you play with him all the time make up your mind, do you know the kids game or not.

snoogins47 · by **snoogins47** » Sun Jun 27, 2004 8:17 pm GMT

Not knowing the term "slowplay" doesn't stop him from understanding a simple concept.

His mind "Hmmm, I've got a great hand. I don't want to scare him away." (Small bet)

You raise. He thinks "Fine by me, and I'll try the same thing on the next street."

The only thing I think was the wrong play would've been just calling your raise on the river. Be thankful: a decent player might've played this the same way, except for re-raising the river. Now, you're either going to lose a lot more money, or never know if your second set will have held up or not.

We all run into brick walls like that in this game. Just be thankful for the times when you are on the other side of them ;P

freni126 · by **freni126** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:28 am GMT

MLT_Slim wrote:Figuring just the flop and not the probability of two players holding pocket pairs you just take the number of combos the two Q's and 7's can make. 4*3/2*1 = 6. Remove the QQ and the 77 and you get 6-2 = 4 two card combos that the two Q.s and 7,s can make. Each of those combos can combine with any of the 44 unknown cards (52 - the 4 Q's and the 4 7's) = 4 * 44 = 176. Divide that with the number of flop combos which is 48*47*46/3*2*1 = 17296= 176/17296= .0101 = 1%

I think I disagre there...
assuming we "know" a guy A has 77 and B has QQ.. (as we kinda do in this case), we have 52-2 sevens - 2 queens = 48 cards left in the deck
of these 48 2 is sevens and 2 is queens...

The probability we are looking for is P("A hitting sevens" | "B has hit his queens")= (2/48)*(2/47)= 0.00177..

So 0.1% would be accurate I think...

DocHolliday · by **DocHolliday** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:42 pm GMT

This happened online at pokerstars a few weeks ago. I'd been playing 5/10 for a long time and had attempted 10/20 only a couple times. I decided to step into the 10/20 room and make sure I played tight. I didn't have to wait long. About the 3rd round around, I was dealt pocket queens under the gun. Of course, I raised. Everyone folds around to the button, who makes it 3 bets. One of the blinds folds and the big blind caps it at 4 bets. I'm thinking, what the hell did I get myself into. I had to call. Flop comes KQx. Small blind bets, I raise, button raises, small blind caps, and we all call. I'm not one to let go of a set this early, but I was strongly considering it. Until the turn, which brought a blank. Small blind checks. I check. Button bets, and we both call. fearing a set of kings, I might have folded had it been raised, but I resorted to just checking and calling. River is a blank and same procedure as was on the turn. Both the other players turn over pocket aces and I win! A couple of the players had criticized my play for not raising on the turn, but hey, I was happy I at least won at that point. So someone can go calculate the odds of that happening!

Probability (bad beat?)

Probability (bad beat?)

Another example of 3 pocket pairs in one hand....

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