Outs vs "outs"

[Reverend SC]

Tell me if I'm a fool for this please....

NL cash game on PP, .25/.50 blinds. I get dealt AsJh. Mid raises to $2. I'm not overly fond of AJ, so I call. SB calls.

Flop KsQd3s.

UTG bets .50, mid calls, I call.

Turn 6d (for those keeping score, there's 2 spades and 2 diamonds on the board).

So if you're counting outs, I really only have 7 good outs (any 10 or another ace). However, I've been playing this hand exactly like a flush-drawer would. And if a spade or a diamond came off, I'd put in a hefty bet (depending of course on what they did, but I'm fairly certain, based on these guys in the past and the current hand, that neither was on a flush draw).

UTG bets $2, mid calls. So if I'm counting real outs, I have 7. But if you count "outs" (cards that could come off that would make it look like I caught my hand), there's 23. Maybe I'm an idiot, that's why I'm posting.

Turned out the 10h came up, so I couldn't be beaten and I took down the pot after some post-river raising. Of course, I got chided as being lucky and a poor player, but from where I was sitting, I did have a stranglehold on that pot.

So when counting outs, does it make sense to have 2 sets in some cases, one that makes your real hand, and one that would make it look like you made a hand? (Within reason).

[redd38]

Maybe I'm a fool too but here goes my thoughts.

In this situation you had a drawing hand and you were representing a drawing hand. It seems to me that if you have a drawing hand you should represent a made hand and if you have a made hand you should represent a drawing hand.* So using that logic you'd only have 1 set of outs, the set for the drawing hand (real or represented)





*most of the time

[Reverend SC]

I think I got that. I was a on a str8 draw, for a 10. But they way the board cameout, I could just as easily have been on a flush draw, so it was correct to count 23 outs (any spade, any diamond, another A or a 10)?

Note: This hand came close on the heels of a very "lucky" hand. On the botton with almost everyone limping, I went for a steal with 67 offsuit. I put in a $3 bet, and was going to bet $6 post flop no matter what came up if anyone stuck around. One person did, flopped a 6, turned a 6 and rivered a 7. I honestly didn't mean for anyone to call, I felt kind bad for big slick, but that's what he gets for limping. If he'd raised, I'd have folded pre-flop and went for my steal some other time.

[krille]

Read this article by Negreanu, the last hand he dercribes is very interesting

http://www.thepokerresource.com/daniel_ ... eanu83.htm

[Nut Flush]

thanks Krille, I was going to point to the same article.

So if you're counting outs, I really only have 7 good outs (any 10 or another ace).

You can't really count an Ace as an out. Even though it will give you top pair, it gives anybody with a TJ(lots of people love to play TJ) the nut straight. You're only real out is a ten.

However, there are tons of outs that would allow you to represent a hand and try to bluff the pot.

[flafishy]

I felt kind bad for big slick

Hi, Rev. This statement aroused my curiousity. Why feel kind of bad for him? It's his tough luck, not yours. Save your empathy for your own tough luck is my philosophy.

Had something similar last night on a limit table. I was in the BB with a K2o, a few limpers, of course I checked.

Flop comes AK8 rainbow, SB bets, I put him on an A but raised him, knocking everyone else out except SB, who called.

Turn comes a 2, SB checks, I bet, he calls.

River comes another 2, he bets, I raise, he calls.

His cards were mucked obviously, so I didn't see his A and what was possibly a K or an 8. But I certainly didn't feel bad for him.

In fact, I love it that he went on tilt, huffed, "That's ridiculous!" and messed up a hand a little later when I pushed him.

His problem, not mine.

[Reverend SC]

Yeah, I guess. But it was a ridiculous hand that I won, going for a steal on a completely crap hand and making a boat out of it.

After laying into me on getting "lucky" later with that 10, I don't feel so bad about it, lol....

[flafishy]

I love it when that happens to me, which doesn't very often. Usually, I'm the one getting nailed by something like that when playing among those calling stations at the low limits.

[Sean_in_NJ]

So when counting outs, does it make sense to have 2 sets in some cases, one that makes your real hand, and one that would make it look like you made a hand? (Within reason).

Absolutely, but you have to be really careful about the hands you select to represent. As you said, the probability of making that hand has to be within reason.

In the example you provided, I wouldn't automatically count a diamond as an out. If I'm the opponent in this case, I'd be hard pressed to believe that you would chase the runner runner flush without having some other hand with which to call on the flop...and if you had a hand on the flop, wouldn't you raise with the threat of the spade flush draw? So if a diamond does fall that doesn't seem to help a hand other than a flush draw, I'm definitely going to call.

[Reverend SC]

So when counting outs, does it make sense to have 2 sets in some cases, one that makes your real hand, and one that would make it look like you made a hand? (Within reason).

Absolutely, but you have to be really careful about the hands you select to represent. As you said, the probability of making that hand has to be within reason.

In the example you provided, I wouldn't automatically count a diamond as an out. If I'm the opponent in this case, I'd be hard pressed to believe that you would chase the runner runner flush without having some other hand with which to call on the flop...and if you had a hand on the flop, wouldn't you raise with the threat of the spade flush draw? So if a diamond does fall that doesn't seem to help a hand other than a flush draw, I'm definitely going to call.

That's a good point. If a flush was going to fall, I would 100% want it to be the spade, I had the Ace, so I would be fairly confident I could chase even a spade flush out. The diamond might have been a tough sell, although the flop bet was only .50. Anyone with AdXd might have called that, small price to pay to chase runner runner. I did take that under consideration though, good point.