POT ODDS MADE SIMPLE

[Verdi]

Ok, but if you have the top pair and a straight or flush isn't probable. Then what? What are the odds that no one has two pairs or a set?

And what if you hit that flush and someone has a higher flush?

Everything must be included in the calculations...

[suitedaces84]

Ok, but if you have the top pair and a straight or flush isn't probable. Then what?

Then you bet! Not based on bet odds based on the fact that you have hand. Bet odds ONLY concern betting with a draw for value. For value means you want to be called.

If you have a flush and someone has a higher flush, that's rough man. Like implied odds, bet odds are an approximation, so it's not necessary to factor in the odds of someone having a better hand than you if you hit your draw.

[Dakijeza]

The real problem is implied odds, like bet odds, are only a guess. If you call that $3, hit your draw and your opponent check/folds to your bet, then your call was bad.

I don't necessarily agree with that. If you win the pot because your opponents folded, your call was good. But, if you've implied several bets, and only one other person calls, you're not doing so well anymore.

[Sean_in_NJ]

I don't necessarily agree with that. If you win the pot because your opponents folded, your call was good. But, if you've implied several bets, and only one other person calls, you're not doing so well anymore.

You can't let the results justify the means, because it just falls in the variance bucket. Even if you win the pot, your call on the turn becomes bad if you don't get the return you were expecting on your river bet. If it happens enough, you will lose money because it's inherently -EV. It's sort of the inverse to the problem of bluffing a calling station: the more you do it, the less incorrect it is for them to call all the way down.

If I can find the time, I'll work up a Sklanskyesque example. Mathematics isn't open to interpretation.

[BeerWench13]

You can't let the results justify the means

Precisely.
Example: I'm holding KK on the button. Four players limp and I raise to 5xBB. One player calls with A 2 off. The flop is 8 4 J rainbow. My opponent checks and I go all-in which is 4 times the size of the pot. Now, at this point, the A 2 should throw away their hand, but if they don't and they catch their A then they won. Now, to make my point. The call preflop and the all-in call were both poor plays, but they won when their A hit on the river. Just because they won the pot does not mean they made the right play.

I'm using this example because it happened to me a few nights ago online. When another player asked her what she was thinking calling the all-in bet, she replied "Well, I had odds and I wanted to win." Needless to say she paid me well later, but it was obvious that she did not have odds to call my all-in bet (I really think the preflop call was bad here too). So, just because she won the hand does not mean that she had the proper odds to play it or that she played the hand correctly.

[Dakijeza]

Well, apples are being compared to oranges here.

BW13, you're talking about straight pot odds. I wouldn't have called that hand, either. She only had 3 outs. The odds were against her, period. No implied odds came into the picture.

I'm talking about when you consider implied odds -- basically, it's speculation -- and you're wrong but you still win money. You won because you raised. Which is the object. One of the reasons you raise is that hopefully everyone else folds.

So, say you've got bad pot odds but you imply that four players will call you and give you good implied odds. If only one calls, you're odds are screwed. You speculated, wrongly. And, it bit you.

But, if everyone folds, you win.

In this situation, you screwed up badly in your implied odds. You need to rethink why you thought four people would call you and none did. You should realize that this doesn't mean everyone will fold to you again, and that it wasn't a good call in your implied odds.

But, on the other hand, in your decision process, you might have factored in that winning the hand immediately is a possibility. You bet, or raised, and you won, which is one of the advantages of betting or raising. In this situation, you either needed everyone to call, or you needed everyone to fold. The latter happened.

In general, though, yes, if you screw up that badly on your implied odds, you should reflect on how you misread the table.

Does that make sense?

[Sean_in_NJ]

Well, apples are being compared to oranges here.

Sounds like it. I'm talking about calling a turn bet based on the assumption that you will get paid on the river when you make your hand. If you don't get that money on the river, whether or not you win the hand, the play is -EV and your call on the turn was incorrect.

Raising the turn to get others to fold is not what we're talking about.

[BeerWench13]

My basic point was using a hand to demonstrate Sean's statement that the results shouldn't justify the means. In that hand, she won but had terrible odds to call my bet. Just because she won doesn't mean that her call was correct as far as odds are concerned. I wasn't referring to implied odds at all. There were none in that hand.

[KINGJACK]

Pot odds count ONLY the money already in the pot. Ignore bets that have been placed but are not yet in the pot, when using pot odds. The fact that there are bets placed that you aren't counting is the flaw of pot odds.

NOPE...

In fact there is 3 thigs to look at:
ie: you have 1/3 odds of hitting the cards that gives you the nuts(or what you thik is the winning hand)

1st, bet odds
you need 3 bettors to call... easy... 1/3 undedog, need 3 callers
note: here, it dosent mather if players had bet 1million$ or one buck... well... 1million$ could be a major concern... but you know what i mean! : )
if you have only 2 bettors, you have to look at

2nd, Pot odds
if the money already in the pot + money already on the table for bets, is greater than 3 times what you have to put in... then, call.
Note:if some money is yours and you have to call a raise, this money count in the pot odds. Any way, if you had the odds to call the bet, you have the odds to call the raise... in limit game at least.
if not, you have to look at

3rd, Implied odds
If the money already in the pot + the money already on the table for bets + the extra money you think you will win by hitting your card is greater than 3 times what you have to bet, then bet.

However the think could be a big issue... dont expect your oponent to automatilcly go all in if you hit your card.

Implied odds should be use only in very close call.
Or, when you know your oponent have a monster and will definately want to see what you got!!! But online its very hard to know if he have a monster or not. Betting patern could be a good indicator... but... who knows?

In live games it could be amazingly easy. Especialy from online players!!! : )

Made some mistakes?
Dont think soo... looks clear
Any way...