Figuring out pot odds!

[chicoelnino]

I not really well versed on the whole pot odds thing. Its something that I really want to be able to understand, but I can't say I even know the basics.

Could someone point me in the right direction of either a website or a book that explains pot odds in laymans terms???? [/b]

[PuckJunkieNY]

I not really well versed on the whole pot odds thing. Its something that I really want to be able to understand, but I can't say I even know the basics.

Could someone point me in the right direction of either a website or a book that explains pot odds in laymans terms???? [/b]

Have you explored the rest of this site?
Start here: http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/odds.php

[suitedaces84]

Here it is, unfortunatly, I don't think it's in "laymans terms". The first thing is to learn exactly what odds are.

Odds vs Probablility

Odds
-bad:good

Probability
-good in total

total = bad + good

so if my odds are X:Y the probability will be Y in (X+Y)

so 3:1 is the same as 1 in 4

Converting a % to odds
if you have a x% chance of winning your odds are
100-x:x
so if you have a 30% chance a winning the odds are 70:30
70:30 can be simplified to 2.3:1

Converting odds to a %
If your odds are X:Y you will have a [Y/(X+Y)]*100% chance of winning.

How you can actually use this
If the pot is $13 on the river and your oppoent bets $10 how sure do you have to be that you're beat in order to fold?

The odds are 2.3:1 so if you're more than 30% sure you're beat you should fold.

Let's say I'm 40% sure I'm beat and I call. I lose 60% of the time costing me .6*$10 = $6. However I'll win 40% of the time gaining me .6*$23 = $9.2.

How you can apply this to draws
If I have flush draw on the turn with a pot of $20 and an incoming bet of $7 and I want to determine if I have good pot odds I use the same logic as above. There are 46 cards in the deck and 9 are outs so the odds are 37 bad cards. So my odds are 37:9, this is about 4:1. So if the pot is four times the incoming bet I have good pot odds. In this case I'm 4:1 on my draw and 3.9:1 on my draw. So my pot odds are not good. Of course it's still an easy call because pot odds neglect any money I can win on future streets. So as long as I can get him to call a bet of at least $1 on the river when my flush hits I would be correct to call due to implied odds.

It's all much easier than I made it sound. Just memorize the basic odds below.
Flush--4:1
Open-ended straight--4.5:1
Gutshot straight--10.5:1

Before calling with a draw ask yourself: will I profit at least (appropiate odds based on draw) times the incoming bet?

One more thing to consider, drawing dead. If you've got a gutshot, there are 2 on the board four callers ahead of you it's likely that you have three outs not four...just look for things like that.

[HalfSugar]

I've moved this into the Odds & Probability forum. No doubt there is even more useful stuff in there for you

[Hank]

Nice succinct article on odds and probability.

Thanks suitedaces84!!

[JackKingOff]

ok... i just have a question... i am pretty sure what your doing is fine... however, ive seen a lot of articles or sites say to calculate pot odds u g2 find ur % of hitting ur draw... and to do this you multiply by 2 and then add 1 so basically for a flush draw ud have 19% chance to hit... or i dont know... ive been using that all along... would ur way be better?

[HalfSugar]

A quick and dirty calculation to find the % of you hitting your draw is:

On the flop, you take your number of outs and multiply by 4.
On the turn, you take your number of outs and multiply by 2.

Flush draw with 9 outs is therefore about 36% (about 1 in 3 or 2 to 1) on the flop, 18% (about 1 in 6 or 5 to 1) on the turn.

[jbark]

I just ran across this post while reading and learning a bit about poker. but i think there is a typo in sutiedAces reply above where he wrote:

How you can actually use this
If the pot is $13 on the river and your oppoent bets $10 how sure do you have to be that you're beat in order to fold?

The odds are 2.3:1 so if you're more than 30% sure you're beat you should fold.

Let's say I'm 40% sure I'm beat and I call. I lose 60% of the time costing me .6*$10 = $6. However I'll win 40% of the time gaining me .6*$23 = $9.2.

i believe that the last line should read: "...gaining me .4*$23 = $9.2"

Now, i'm not claiming any great poker knowledge here because i don't have it but i think i would present this a little differently to make the example more clear. Like this:

How you can actually use this
If the pot is $13 on the river and your oppoent bets $10 how sure do you have to be that you're beat in order to fold?

The odds are 2.3:1 so if you're more than 30% sure you're beat you should fold.

Let's say I'm 40% sure I'm beat and I call. I lose 60% of the time costing me .6*$10 = $6. However I'll win 40% of the time gaining me .4*$23 = $9.2, so my expected value on the $10 bet is $9.2 - $6 = $3.2.

Another way of interpreting expected value is this: if i bet ten dollars in this situation i should expect to loose $10 - $3.2 = $6.8 dollars.

cheers
jerry