Odds?

[Silhouette]

I searched online but couldn't find odds this detailed and was wondering if anyone had the #'s on a situation like this.. Normally I can run these myself, but I just woke up and I'm feeling braindead.

I get Js7s in BB and check it. Flop comes 682, one of which is a spade. What're the odds of catching runner runner spades, and/or runner runner for my straight, since it's open ended (even though I only have 3 to it at this point). I folded to a substancial bet, but I thought the pot odds might favor me to a smaller bet.

Any help is greatly appreciated.

[TheSalche]

alllright ... before i go through the math, im guessing its about 5% or so ... very slim .. here goes though

for the flush

10/48 * 9/47 = 3.989% ... or about 4%

10 spades left in the deck, both of these need to happen, so thats the odds of that

for the straight its a bit trickier, first card you need can be a 4,5,9 or 10, but none of which are spades (avoids double counting) so thats 4 * 3 = 12

12/48 for the first card

second straight card needs to be a 4/5 or 9/10 depending on which one you got first, now here i believe we can count the spades in since we're assuming you didn't get it on the first (may be wrong about this), so thats 2 * 4 = 8

8/47 for the second

12/48 * 8/47 = 4.25%

combine it for 8.25% chance

if you don't count the spades in the second it becomes 6/47 so then 3.19%, and 7.19% total

you need very good pot odds to chase this =)

other THP math wizards check my work and see if it makes sense

[suitedaces84]

There are 8 cards that will give you the open ended. Which will give you the open ended. There are also eight cards that will give you that sweet, sweet gutshot. It's 8/47*8/46 or 8/47*4/46 --> .0296 or .0148. -->1- [(1-.0296)*(1-.0148)] --> .044

Then to combine the two draw it's: 1-[(1-.04)*(1-.044)] --> .08224 or 8.224%. I guess that's what Salche got, but there were some minor flaws in his math I just couldn't overlook. 8)


To chase this you must:
a) be getting really tasty #s
b) a really big fish
c) have a good feeling about the hand (always trust your gut)
d) really, really want to give a bad beat

[TheSalche]

Then to combine the two draw it's: 1-[(1-.04)*(1-.044)] --> .08224 or 8.224%. I guess that's what Salche got, but there were some minor flaws in his math I just couldn't overlook. 8)

i ... i did something right?

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D

[snoogins47]

There are 8 cards that will give you the open ended. Which will give you the open ended. There are also eight cards that will give you that sweet, sweet gutshot. It's 8/47*8/46 or 8/47*4/46 --> .0296 or .0148. -->1- [(1-.0296)*(1-.0148)] --> .044

Then to combine the two draw it's: 1-[(1-.04)*(1-.044)] --> .08224 or 8.224%. I guess that's what Salche got, but there were some minor flaws in his math I just couldn't overlook. 8)


To chase this you must:
a) be getting really tasty #s
b) a really big fish
c) have a good feeling about the hand (always trust your gut)
d) really, really want to give a bad beat

I'm always B and D, pretend it's C, and rationalize my way to A. And even I fold here

[Silhouette]

Cheers fellas, I appreciate the help.

What'd happened was a preflop raise from the blind with lots of callers who ended up folding after the flop betting, so there was a bit of $ in the pot and I thought it might be worth chasing.. 8.25% is about 11:1 against (offhand?) .. but that's assuming I play to the river.

I'm glad I folded it, it wouldn't have hit anyway, but I've been focusing alot more on pot odds, so I was kind of curious.

Thanks again.