+EV on the bubble ?

[red_pen]

Just for interest / discussion mind...

A hand came up a few days ago. A 9 handed STT (w/ standard payout structure of $50/$30/$20) had boiled down to 4:

blinds were 50/100

UTG: (6500) had A K
Button: (850)
SB: (7450) had 8 8
BB: (3050)

UTG makes it 200, button folds, SB raises to 800, BB folds, UTG goes all-in, SB calls.

While SB's call was pot odds "correct" getting about 1.4-1 on a coin flip did his call really show +EV in this situation?

What I mean is: SB is the chip lead. He and UTG are (all things being equal) going to finish 1st/2nd. His tourney "value" right now is midway between 1st ($50) and second ($30) so he's worth about $40, maybe a little less. If he loses this all-in he'll be tied for 3rd place and be worth $10 maybe a little more (half of $20, the third place payout). If he wins this all in we'll assume he's guaranteed 1st place, so he'll worth $50. Effectively he's risking $30 to win $10 and therefore needs to be 75% favourite in the hand to make this call correct. The 8s are not up to this almost irrespective of any hand UTG holds. In fact, what hands are up to it with unknown UTG holdings?

Agree / disagree / comments ?

[Loonbat]

Pinging this because I'm curious as to responses and it seems to be a good question. EV in a tournament is a strange beast when prize money is factored in ...

[tame_deuces]

I dont think you can't say his call was correct because he got 1.4:1 on a coinflip, because he had no way of knowing what hands his opponent held, instead you would have to base the math on 88 vs a range of hands and the possibility of villain holding them...for instance in the simplest scenario villain would only go all in with AK or better hands.

As for tournament prizes, you would also have to factor in what place the hero would end up if he kept folding due to 'tourney pot odds'.

[red_pen]

thanks for pinging this loonbat. i thought it was going to slip down and eventually off the list into forum oblivion - and pinging it yourself is just so damn egotistical.

i've given it a bit more thought and it is indeed not obvious. calling with the 8s? Pot odds correct it is (and therefore chip eV) but in terms of cash eV i think it is way off the mark. He's getting effective money odds of about 1-3. And 8s are not worth a bet at 1-3 unless you know the other guy is pushing with a lower pair. If you start putting the AK guy on a range of hands (which is more reflective of real life as tame_deuces suggests), it still a fold. in fact, what hands can you call with (AA aside)?

Taking it a stage further, put yourself in UTG seat in the hand described, is it +eV to push with any 2 following sb's reraise?

[Silhouette]

There's two ways to look at this, as a general idea, but only one way I would play the hand: As an individual hand, or as a part of the tournament (a part of the bigger game..)

I'm not risking prize money as a chiplead on a 50/50 shot. Since I'm the chiplead, that means I essentially have more time (orbits relative to blinds) than anyone else, and it means I have more opportunity to press those opportunities.

This is a case where I put Sklnasky aside and I pick up Sun Tzu.. the original master of war games. In the SnG your goal is to get everyone else's chips. You want to win the tournament, the operation of which (and thereby theory of which) is slightly different from cash games in the bigger picture. When you're ahead, you press your advantage. Meeting a weaker stack on their level is not pressing your advantage when you have the option to wait for a better chance.

If I'm the chiplead, I'm not getting involved, especially not against another big stack. I'm waiting for better than 50/50 odds. I read once that Chip Reese (I think it's in Super System?) wouldn't even play hands where he was a slight favorite, because it isn't worth the risk in a tournament.

The principle that I've adapted is play for first or third. Get In the Money, then take your shots at 50/50. You'll be guaranteed 3rd if you wait, with a much better shot at first.