TexasHoldem-Poker.com

[buckeyes77]

Just wanted to present a question I've thought about from time to time but never actually closed the loop on. Maybe of one you have a solid answer to this.

Let's say you you call pre-flop with 2 clubs and 2 clubs fall on the flop giving you a flush draw. So you think 9 outs ..47 cards unseen.. that gives you 20% chance.. double it since you have 2 chances (turn and river) and you come out with 40% to use as your base for comparing with the money numbers. This is the "standard" way of thought.

However, is it more realistic to use 20% instead of 40% since there is no guarantee you will actually see the river and use it for your flush possibility? Furthermore, if you call you will probably be presented with a whole new scenario on the river that doesn't have much to do with the 40% figure you originally calculated on the turn. On the other hand some people might say that 20% is too conservative a figure since you WILL get to use the river card atleast some of the time.

Anyone have thoughts on this?

[Ensano]

you calculate your odds for the next card...

[buckeyes77]

Thanks.

[Gunslinger]

...unless the flop bet puts you or your opponent all-in, then you can use your odds to hit your flush by the river to decide if you should call.

For the record, your odds of hitting a flush on the next card are closer to 18%, but you can use 4:1 as a guideline. For the next two cards, it's around 35%, and you need about 2:1 pot odds to call.