Pot odds rookie

[hawkonzen]

I'm having trouble getting all your talk about pot odds. Maybe I'm a bit slow but once it sinks in it stays there..

I read another post with Out-odds
9 outs = 4-1
8 outs = 5-1
7 outs = 6-1
etc.

I just can't figure out how to apply this when i'm playing..
If i have a flush draw on the flop i generally have 9 outs, so my odds are
9 x 2 = 18% to hit on the turn and x4 = 36% on the river?

If the pot was 50$ and the bastard bet 15$ into it, what would my potodds be? What does 4-1 in out-odds mean ? I'm confused, thinking up this scenario made me even more confused :D

If someone could try to explain i would be really happy, I'm trying to step up my game a bit..

[Oasis]

Ok, there are much more experienced players on these boards who can answer your question much better then me. But I too didn't understand this concept until a few weeks ago. I found that Slansky's book explained it really well so i'll see how I go. If i'm wrong, I apolagise.

The bet is on you at $15. And the pot is $50. That's roughly about a 3.33:1 (we'll say 3.5:1) ratio of the pot to your money. So for every dollar you put in, you have a chance at winning ~ $3.5.

Therefore... You need to have a better ratio of 3.5:1 (there are also implied odds which may bump this up but I don't understand this too well) to make the call. You do this by calculating your outs, that will complete your set and more then likley win you the hand and pot.

With 9 outs (your flush draw) you have a ratio of about 4:1 so in this case I do not think you should make the call. This is because of negative expectation which Slanksy describes.

Think of it like this.

If you LOSE the hand 4 times out of 5 you will LOSE your $15 bet 4 times. That's $60.

If you WIN the hand the other 1 time out of 5 you will win the $50 pot once.

That's a total of -$10. Not good. That's negative expectation.

If you had more outs, you are more then likley to hit your hand, therefore your chance to win might become something like 3:1

In this case, you will LOSE the hand 3 times out of 4. Losing your bet 3 times. ($15x3) $45.

BUT, you will win it on the 4th time and win that $50 pot.

That's a positive expecation of $5. This is what we want because we are only concerned about how we fair in the long term.

So, the pot odds are 3.5:1 and your hand to win has a ratio of 4:1. You should not make this call! However, the implied odds (if there are some more limpers will BUILD the pot and create better odds.)

Your aim in poker is to figure what draws your opponents are on and bet so that you are giving them incorrect odds. Or something like that.

Hope this helps, but I'm also interested to learn more about this.

[hawkonzen]

Thanks for the help, even though I don't quite understand yet.

i think i'll look around for the sklansky book and study hard 8)

Thanks!

[mooseontheloose]

Basically...

Say your outs make you 1/4 chance to hit your winning hand.

Say your pot/bet ratio is $10 into a $100 pot, that is 1/11.

Call.

The cut and dry, without bringing out implied odds or anything else, is to call when your out odds are better than your bet odds (those aren't real terms, just what I'm using)

So in my above example...

Out Odds = 25% to hit your card
Bet Odds = 10% of the pot needs to be called

You want to make a call like this. However, if you have say 2 outs and you're needing to call 50% of the pot, the math will tell you that in the long run this is a bad idea.

Hope that helps a little. It's more complicated when you add things like implied odds but understanding pot odds is the major step and isn't too hard once you get the basic idea.

1. Figure out outs
2. How much do you need to call compared to the pot?
3. Is the ratio of outs higher (in percentage) than the call in relation to the pot? If yes, call, if not then you should usually fold.

[KingOHearts]

I would add....

You need to figure your bet money into the pot when you figure pot odds. If you bet $50 into a $100 pot this is not betting $50 to win $100, it is betting $50 to win $150. Or put in terms of odds, it is 1:3 not 1:2.

[mooseontheloose]

Oops yeh, forgot to add that, thanks.

[Johny]

I would add....

You need to figure your bet money into the pot when you figure pot odds. If you bet $50 into a $100 pot this is not betting $50 to win $100, it is betting $50 to win $150. Or put in terms of odds, it is 1:3 not 1:2.

I disagree.

In your example you'd be getting 2-1, calling 50 to win 100.

[KingOHearts]

I would add....

You need to figure your bet money into the pot when you figure pot odds. If you bet $50 into a $100 pot this is not betting $50 to win $100, it is betting $50 to win $150. Or put in terms of odds, it is 1:3 not 1:2.

I disagree.

In your example you'd be getting 2-1, calling 50 to win 100.

Sorry, I was mixing up the amount you as the bettor have to bet to give or deny certain odds to a subsequent caller. I stand corrected.

[Johny]

I'm the one who was wrong. I though you were talking about calling bets, not making them. My mistake.

[hawkonzen]

woops,

[hawkonzen]

I think i actually understand it more now..


but what's a easy way to figure out my bet-ratio ? say 27 $ into a 67$ pot ?

and what's an easy way to figure out mye outs-ratio? say i got 15 of them

sorry if i'm asking too much

and.. a open ended + flush draw, that's 15 outs (?) , is that a situation which requires a call unless the opponent bets a potsized bet?

thanks :D

[mooseontheloose]

Requires math, the outs will eventually be easy as you'll memorize common situations.

Remember, you'll have 47 outs left for the turn and 46 for the river.

So for 15 outs, it's 15:47 which is about 1:3.1 and 15:46 (1:3.2) on the river. Using only pot odds then to figure out your move, taking nothing else into consideration, you should only call a bet if it's less than 33% of the pot.

As for the cash, just some math. You say 27 into 67, just round it a bit. We know that 20 into 60 is 1/3, so slightly higher. I often use percentages rather than ratios as it's easier to do quickly. 27 into 67 for example is 40% of the pot.

[hawkonzen]

ok, thanks man!

[Gunslinger]

So for 15 outs, it's 15:47 which is about 1:3.1 and 15:46 (1:3.2) on the river. Using only pot odds then to figure out your move, taking nothing else into consideration, you should only call a bet if it's less than 33% of the pot.

You're off a bit here, th3pac. 15 out of 47 is about a 1 in 3 chance (33%), but this means the odds are 2 to 1 against you. And a full pot sized bet is giving you 2:1 odds.

If you have a 25% chance of hitting your card, the odds are 3 to 1 against you. And a bet of half the pot is giving you 3:1 odds.

[mooseontheloose]

Woops yeh, that'll teach me to post 5m after I wake up