Pre Flop Odds - Priced In etc

[Sentinel]

A couple of Q's about pre flop odds.

1) Calling When Priced In
Preflop, you're never more than a 2:1 underdog against ATC and when someone shoves all in, like a short stack, then sometimes you are priced in to call.

However, when someone shoves, especially if they've been biding their time surely you have to ask, if you really are as good as 2:1 against to win. And is it a good idea to be spewing chips? A number of times I call and face a monster. Other times I just get outdrawn. In SNGs particularly, you're rarely gonna be that far ahead, stack wise, and so any defeat can dent you massively at a time when the blinds are huge.

I know the maths says you should call, and ICM calculations advocate calling with a vast range but it makes sense to lose a 400bb rather than risk 2000 - which could be as much as 1/2 your stack - with a hand like A5, 44 or K8. I haveost count of the number of times I've buggered myself up as a result of calling. It seems far more sensible to wait until you have something stronger, doesn't it?



2) How Can You Be Priced In?
I don't see how you can ever be priced in pre flop, unless the short stack is super short. I can't see where you get 2:1. Eg: it's a 4 way bubble and shorty shoves from the CO for 1500. Blinds are 200/400. Now there is 2100 in the pot and you have to call 2100 to win 2100. That's 1:1. Even the bb, having to call 1100 to win 2100 isn't getting 2:1. So when are you priced in?


3) Examples of a guy saying he experimented calling all ins with odds of 2:1 or more. It doesn't add up.

Below is a sumamry, I can't see how he gets 2:1

Blinds 500/1000
Hero has 40500.
Dealt to Hero [4s Ac].
A: folds
B: folds
Hero: raises 1500 to 2500
C: raises 14202 to 16702 and is all-in
D: folds
Hero: calls 14202.

He called 14202 to win 18202 (16702 + 500 + 1000) which is nowhere near 2:1. Can anyone explain?

[Felting]

He's calling off a 1/3 of his stack with A4?

The only way this makes since is if he puts the other player on unpaired cards w/o an Ace. Then he's like a 3:2 favorite. Otherwise bad call. Most the time I would expect a pocket pair, Ax, or 2 paint cards.

I'd let it go and find a better spot.

edit: he's calling 14202 to win 20702, you have to include his previous bet in the pot.

[Sentinel]

Thx for the correction. It's still not 2:1 though, is it?

Any help with the other points too?

[Felting]

It's still a bad call.

Way I work it is by figuring the other players M(number of rounds he can survive if he's blinded off without playing) and using that to gauge how desperate he is. Combine that with any reads you have on the guy.

Some players don't change as their stacks dwindle, if they push they have it. Others loosen up around an M of 10 and get desperate around 5.

The player in #3 had an M around 10. He needs to get busy but still has enough room to wait for A-face or a pair so A4 is probably at least a 3:1 dog here.

If his M was 5 or less then he could have ATC making this a marginal call at best.

[Jauron]

Where did you get this information you are asking to be explained and why isn't the person who gave it to you doing this?

2:1 isn't going to come up that often, and when it does it should be because you are the BB and facing a shorty AI. Yes call the AI for the most part without even looking at your hand.

If you are getting 2:1 without being a blind you need a hand. You have others to act behind you and if you came into the pot before the push the shorty has to know you are calling wide and should only be doing this with strong hands.


The "example" is not 2:1, so this person has to be saying something else.

[Felting]

Jauron is right.

I assumed we where talking about being last to act. weather it is in the big blind or from being the last limper before the all-in.

If there are players left to act you should stick to premium hand and reraise to isolate.

P.S. You know what ASSUME does?

it makes an ASS out of U and ME

[LeeG]

The only place you always have odds to call is HU on the button. There are many situations where you are far worse than 2:1 dog preflop. AA vs A6o is something like 19:1

You can be priced in if there is dead money in the pot - large blinds or antes or other action.

[MrDarling]

Few comments :
1. your math is off on all examples.
2. very rarely will you get 2:1 PF
3. You are not playing against ATC, you are playing against villain range.

[Sentinel]

Thx for the reponses. Let's go through them one by one to get a clearer idea of where we are up to.

Where did you get this information you are asking to be explained and why isn't the person who gave it to you doing this?
I found it at another forum/blog. I have looked at so many, pocket5s, 2+2 etc. I didn't ask them because I am not a member.

your math is off on all examples.
I've rechecked my post and am at a loss as to where I am off with the math, apart from what Felting pointed out. Can you explain?


As for the points I raised, you have responded that there is unlikely to be 2:1 pf - and that answers my question, as I rarely ever see it. I hear thephrase a lot but probably under different situations as has been mooted.

It's also reassuring to know the example is not 2:1.

it should be because you are the BB and facing a shorty AI. Yes call the AI for the most part without even looking at your hand. This is what I was questioning. I was also advised, on the bubble, to push on those under 10bb. 4 times in a row I went from bubble chip leader to the felt as I ran into monsters or got lost to a domnated hand. Perhaps it was just bad luck.

I will try and find more details about the guy's experiment.

[golddog]

First, your example #2:

Shorty moves in for 1500 200/400 blinds, you're calling 1500 (not 2100) to win 2100. But you're right, even the BB is not quite 2:1.

But, as Mr D alluded to, it's the range of hands the villian might be playing. It's quite possible if you have A rag, you're even ahead. Player could easily be pushing with any two connected/suited cards.

This is where your knowledge of the player comes in, you have to feel if they're the type that could make that kind of move, or if they're the type which is willing to get blinded off, indicating that they actually have a hand. That'll come with experience.

Another factor is relative chip stacks. A while back, I was running extremely well in a tournament, and called some short stack's all in for ~1000 with 87 .

I was sure I was behind. But, I had ~20000 chips, maybe more, so it wasn't going to hurt me to call, and I also felt this player was kind of weak; so, even if I doubled him up, I didn't feel like he was much of a threat. (I think I was on the BB too, so it was narrowed down to he & I by the time my decision came).

Considering all those variables, I figured it was worth more to eliminate a player than the risk of doubling him up, got lucky, and deleted him.

[Sentinel]

I understand your 78 suited call under the circumstances given. In most SNGs I play, once a player gets <10bb then they shove with any K or A, any pp and any broadway. Some push with 93 just to steal.

As you mentioned about chip stacks, even as chip leader with 6000 of a total of 15,000, I can very easily lose a hand and make shorty's 1500 become 3000, taking mine down to 4500. And that is too close for comfort.

Thx for the replies.

[Jauron]

Golddog is right, it's 1500 to win 2100 for the button, 1100 for BB.