PUSH CALL ODDS

[Garth Paul]

Any comments or input will be greatky appreciated.
Aprx 500 allins called or pushed.
Push aheads won = 58%
Push behinds lost =70%
Have opponents covered ahead win=59%
Have opponents covered behind loss=84%
What do you all think?

Wanted to see others allin % are, and see if I'm just having a run of bad luck.Wineng
I would assume % wins and loses should be pretty even.
Thanks
GP

[golddog]

I think you're going to have to explain more what those precentages mean, and what you're after with them.

Or I'm completely missing an obvious point. Let's not rule that out either.

[Garth Paul]

[quote="golddog"]I think you're going to have to explain more what those precentages mean, and what you're after with them.

Or I'm completely missing an obvious point. Let's not rule that out either.[/quote]

One of my favorite movies
I'm having a very GOOD DAY!

Wanted to see others allin % are, and see if I'm just having a run of bad luck.
I would assume % wins and loses should be pretty even.
Thanks

[Gunslinger]

Push aheads won = 58%
Push behinds lost =70%

This isn't even remotely enough information to determine whether you are running poorly in all-in situations.

When you were ahead when got all-in, sometimes you might have been a 85% favorite, sometimes just barely a 52% favorite. Saying that you won 58% of the time when you were "ahead" isn't enough to go on.

Same thing when you were "behind". It depends on what your ACTUAL equity was in the hands involved.

Whether you had your opponents covered or not is completely moot. It means absolutely nothing.

[Kemics]

Wanted to see others allin % are, and see if I'm just having a run of bad luck.
I would assume % wins and loses should be pretty even.
Thanks

i imagine that being a good poker player has far more influence on your stats than luck.

[Garth Paul]

[quote="Gunslinger"][quote="Garth Paul"]Push aheads won = 58%
Push behinds lost =70%[/quote]
This isn't even remotely enough information to determine whether you are running poorly in all-in situations.

When you were ahead when got all-in, sometimes you might have been a 85% favorite, sometimes just barely a 52% favorite. Saying that you won 58% of the time when you were "ahead" isn't enough to go on.

Same thing when you were "behind". It depends on what your ACTUAL equity was in the hands involved.

Whether you had your opponents covered or not is completely moot. It means absolutely nothing.[/quote]


This may be a better example
I push with As Ad 100 times
Each time someone with 7h 2c calls
I expect to win 87.24% loss 12.40% tie .36 on average.
If I loose 90% of the time would you consider it bad luck?

[supafrey]

Push aheads won = 58%
Push behinds lost =70%

This isn't even remotely enough information to determine whether you are running poorly in all-in situations.

When you were ahead when got all-in, sometimes you might have been a 85% favorite, sometimes just barely a 52% favorite. Saying that you won 58% of the time when you were "ahead" isn't enough to go on.

Same thing when you were "behind". It depends on what your ACTUAL equity was in the hands involved.

Whether you had your opponents covered or not is completely moot. It means absolutely nothing.

This may be a better example
I push with As Ad 100 times
Each time someone with 7h 2c calls
I expect to win 87.24% loss 12.40% tie .36 on average.
If I loose 90% of the time would you consider it bad luck?

I was incredibly confused with your post, but basically deduced the same problem from it that Gunslinger pointed out. If that flaw is actually real - not just us misreading it, then it's a serious one. Your numbers are useless.

To answer this question, running at 10% when you're supposed to run at 12.76% isn't that crazy bad. What kind of hand sample do you have? 100 thousand hands? 150 thousand?

[zinn0]

At what number of hands do all of the numbers magically fall into place?

Serious question.

Really.

[supafrey]

12,001. SERIOUSLY.

















































maybe not seriously.

[LeeG]

To be 95% sure (with a +/- 2% range), you need roughly 2400 samples.

So in the specific case of AA vs 72, when you have 2400 samples, you have about a 95% chance of being within 2% either way of the true odds.

It has been 20 years since I took statistics, so take that with a grain of salt, but I think the numbers are fairly close.

Probability is one of the least intuitive fields of math. For instance, if you were to test coin flips (50-50). Each time it comes heads you add 1 to your total and each time it comes tails you subtract 1. Now plot the total on a graph (total=y axis vs # flips on x). Most people would assume that the plot would stay pretty close to zero. What happens in actuality is that the graph is almost always way above or way below zero (talking over billions of iterations).

[Gunslinger]

Talking about standard deviations and confidence intervals is a couple of steps past the misunderstanding that OP has with his numbers.

This may be a better example
I push with As Ad 100 times
Each time someone with 7h 2c calls
I expect to win 87.24% loss 12.40% tie .36 on average.
If I loose 90% of the time would you consider it bad luck?

Compared to your original question, no, this is not a better example at all. You are comparing apples and oranges.

In your second example, obviously, if you expect to win 87% of the time and only win 10%, that is bad luck (over a significant sample size, which 100 hands really isn't, as others are saying).

But the difference between this example and your first post is that with AA vs 72 you KNOW what your chance of winning the hand is. Your equity in each all-in situation is 87%. In your OP, you only stated that in the times you were "ahead" you won 58% of the time. You would need to know what your EXACT equity is in EVERY hand you played to be able to tell if you were running poorly or not.

[Garth Paul]

[quote="Gunslinger"]Talking about standard deviations and confidence intervals is a couple of steps past the misunderstanding that OP has with his numbers.


[quote="Garth Paul"]This may be a better example
I push with As Ad 100 times
Each time someone with 7h 2c calls
I expect to win 87.24% loss 12.40% tie .36 on average.
If I loose 90% of the time would you consider it bad luck?[/quote]
Compared to your original question, no, this is not a better example at all. You are comparing apples and oranges.

In your second example, obviously, if you expect to win 87% of the time and only win 10%, that is bad luck (over a significant sample size, which 100 hands really isn't, as others are saying).

But the difference between this example and your first post is that with AA vs 72 you KNOW what your chance of winning the hand is. Your equity in each all-in situation is 87%. In your OP, you only stated that in the times you were "ahead" you won 58% of the time. You would need to know what your EXACT equity is in EVERY hand you played to be able to tell if you were running poorly or not.[/quote]

Thanks so much for the info. My last 42 allins ahead I'm only a 46% winner. Sometimes it just bad luck
GP

[jimmer]

My last 42 allins ahead I'm only a 46% winner.

How do you work this out?

46% of 42 is 19.32. Does this mean you won 19 pots (which is 45%) or did you win 20 pots (which totals 48%)?

Or did you split a few pots?

Either way, as already suggested, 42 pots is not enough to get a fair reflection on 'how lucky' you are.

Ask the same question when you've pushed all-in 100,000 times and see what replies you get.

Welcome to the forum BTW.

[Garth Paul]

[quote="jimmer"][quote="Garth Paul"] My last 42 allins ahead I'm only a 46% winner. [/quote]How do you work this out?

46% of 42 is 19.32. Does this mean you won 19 pots (which is 45%) or did you win 20 pots (which totals 48%)?

Or did you split a few pots?

Either way, as already suggested, 42 pots is not enough to get a fair reflection on 'how lucky' you are.

Ask the same question when you've pushed all-in 100,000 times and see what replies you get.

Welcome to the forum BTW.[/quote]
Thanks, 42 allin push aheads and won 20 of them.
Aprx last 400 allins
aheads win aprx 55% (not much better than a race,sometimes clos, sometimes have them dominated)
behinds lost aprx 66%
Just crying about my bad beats
TIA

[gumbie]

argh