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QQ and reverse implied odds? 2/5nl line check.

Analysis of specific hands and general game theory
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19 posts • Page 1 of 2 • 1, 2

QQ and reverse implied odds? 2/5nl line check.

Postby supafrey » Tue Mar 04, 2008 12:36 pm GMT

Okalie. Was playing a full night of 2/5nl (500nl) at the casino last week. This hand got me confused, and lines like this are prolly my one "big" leak.

Up to this point, I was playing fairly tricky but didn't show anything down that was too ridiculous. The asian villian in this case previously played one hand against me, calling a flop c-bet on a QsJs5x board oop, checked through the 5x turn, and called my river bluff after a third 5 hit. He showed AsKs and won with ace high. I mucked my T7s (he didn't see it).

2/5nl
I have QsQx in MP. My stack is roughly $1350. Villain is roughly 750 in LP. EP has about 500.

EP limps for 5, two folds, and it gets to me. I make it $30. LP calls, as does the limper.

The pot is $97, and the flop brings 8x9sTs.

EP checks. I lead out for $55. LP thinks about it for 20 seconds, then raises to $155. EP folds.

This seems like a pretty standard call, so we'll fast forward to the turn.

Turn brings another T. I check, villain bets $200.

Comments?
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Postby gumbie » Tue Mar 04, 2008 1:15 pm GMT

I don't like the fact he thought for a while on the flop, and I don't like his betsize on the turn.

But the T is a good card for you and since you didn't fold the flop you should shove now.
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Postby supafrey » Tue Mar 04, 2008 1:32 pm GMT

gumbie wrote:I don't like the fact he thought for a while on the flop, and I don't like his betsize on the turn.

But the T is a good card for you and since you didn't fold the flop you should shove now.


Is the flop a good fold, even with possible 4 outs to the nice straight? I thought this kind of hand would be a good place to see a turn and re-eval (since "safe" turns are obvious). Am I off?

Standard flop RIO fold?
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Postby gumbie » Tue Mar 04, 2008 1:41 pm GMT

These hands are very very opponent dependant, I think folding flop online vs standard villains is best.

Shoving the flop is gay for multiple reasons.

An interesting line is calling flop raise and donking turn.

This hand you really have to go with ur read on villain but that turn betsize looks like it's trying to induce a shove.

How likely is he to check behind if the T screwed his 89 or if he's got j8 j9 etc? Or even how likely is he to check behind if he turned the boat like a lot of ppl do?

I like the T, shove.
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Postby supafrey » Tue Mar 04, 2008 2:46 pm GMT

gumbie wrote:These hands are very very opponent dependant, I think folding flop online vs standard villains is best.

Shoving the flop is gay for multiple reasons.

An interesting line is calling flop raise and donking turn.

This hand you really have to go with ur read on villain but that turn betsize looks like it's trying to induce a shove.

How likely is he to check behind if the T screwed his 89 or if he's got j8 j9 etc? Or even how likely is he to check behind if he turned the boat like a lot of ppl do?

I like the T, shove.


That big of a betsize on the turn made like 95% sure he didn't have the FH. He woulda checked or bet much smaller (125? 150?) to induce a raise. The donk bet seemed like a decent line but I was unsure if he'd fold a straight (unlikely?) and could easily have a JT combo that would fudge me up.

Again, it seems more and more like i should maybe have folded the flop because of how confusing it was. Or the turn. Are my outs irrelevant?
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Postby xDiamond_CutteRx » Tue Mar 04, 2008 4:02 pm GMT

I am still a little confused about the reason for a shove on that turn. Sure, it works great if he has J8, J9, or 98, but what about any 10? QJ? Hell, even 76? Shoving the turn looks like total spew IMO. Getting in 150 BB with one pair on a coordinated board with no fold equity vs. a better hand does not seem very wise to me, but perhaps you can explain your line of reasoning.

In my weak tight opinion, fold. If he's bluffing, so be it. Winning players have to get bluffed sometimes.

If we pretty much have to catch perfect on the turn, we have little idea on his range, and very low implied odds on the Jack, I vote for folding the flop. Again, it's just too hard to fight like this out of position against someone who has some clue what he is doing.
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Postby gumbie » Tue Mar 04, 2008 4:23 pm GMT

xDiamond_CutteRx wrote:I am still a little confused about the reason for a shove on that turn. Sure, it works great if he has J8, J9, or 98, but what about any 10? QJ? Hell, even 76? Shoving the turn looks like total spew IMO. Getting in 150 BB with one pair on a coordinated board with no fold


Folding the flop is recommended play .

Once we call the flop, if we did it for a reason, folding when a T comes off is silly. I recommend shoving to prevent our head from exploding when a number of cards come on the river.

Quoting BB's is really quite meaningless, we are interested in pot size and effective stack size.
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Postby Phil14312 » Tue Mar 04, 2008 4:28 pm GMT

I hate these hands in NL. LC post I know. How often are you popping in to $30 in LP after 2 limpers? Probably affects your image and subsequent play.
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Postby supafrey » Tue Mar 04, 2008 5:32 pm GMT

Phil14312 wrote:I hate these hands in NL. LC post I know. How often are you popping in to $30 in LP after 2 limpers? Probably affects your image and subsequent play.


Constantly. I punish/isolate limpers in late position with any two connected cards, etc. The table has seen me raise to 30-35 after 1 limper atleast 5-7 times. Obviously i hate this hand, too. It's hard.

Why does folding to 100 bucks on the flop with QQ on 89T seem really, really weak to me. My hand looks alot weaker than it really is, and this type of a crazy board seems like an okay time to make a semi-loose player like myself have to make a tough decision. With the earlier call down with his AKss i just really felt re-eval for 100 bucks in the 250+ pot seems worth it.
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Postby xDiamond_CutteRx » Tue Mar 04, 2008 7:37 pm GMT

Why does folding to 100 bucks on the flop with QQ on 89T seem really, really weak to me.

Because in a vacuum, it is. But considering you're out of position, the board is highly coordinated, and you are facing tremendous reverse implied odds, it really can't be that bad of a fold.
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Postby ScanX » Tue Mar 04, 2008 10:59 pm GMT

I would have bet more on flop, like $75

As played, I don't like to get involved deep OOP on such a shitty flop so I would probably fold to his raise.

On turn, as much as some like the T, I don't and I'm still folding here.

btw supa, I don't see why he can't have a full house on turn since he has 600 in front, bets 200 into 400.
I like his bet if he has a boat
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Postby Ciso_B » Wed Mar 05, 2008 5:59 am GMT

If you call the $100 more on the flop to reevaluate the turn then the turn didn't get any better imo, he could have had AT or something or still have a straight or boat. I lay this on the turn,even if I call the flop. Don't like your hand here at all. Limp calls your raise preflop, suited connectors like QJ and 10-9 are hands alot of players would play like he has.
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Postby tame_deuces » Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:42 am GMT

I think I just fold flop since stacks are to deep to get it in at this point, and you're going to hate almost all possible turn cards - esp oop.
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Postby kingetje » Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:51 am GMT

i like a bigger flop bet..... other then that... im kind lost in this hand as well. and an 8 on the turn would put me more at ease then that T imo
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Postby supafrey » Wed Mar 05, 2008 1:23 pm GMT

About the flop bet size: have you guys ever played live? :P

After 35 pre, 75 on the flop 3 ways would be seen as a huge bet by most live players. This would give them more of an incentive to fold but would look greatly disproportionate in comparison to other flops i've c-bet. like, really weird.

Either way... I think with my loose image this seems like more and more of a fold on the flop or turn. Folding on the turn, imo is slightly better than on the flop, but not by much.

Either way, I called like an idiot and the river brought an offsuit 7. The board is 89TT7 and i've got a lonely pair. I bet a red chip and he raised to $100. I called and showed down a loser.
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