River spot...

[ErinJeff]

Villain is running 56/4/1.4 over 45 hands. Flat call or reraise? Anyone fold this? What do you think he has? The best I could come up with (that beat me) was AT, but if I had AT in this spot I would be raising the flop and/or turn.

PokerStars Game #18165687335: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/06/15 - 21:58:51 (ET)
Table 'Dido' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Fred4BadBeat ($3.65 in chips)
Seat 3: cnemani ($40.90 in chips)
Seat 4: IUsux ($13.75 in chips)
Seat 5: ErinJeff ($25.25 in chips)
Seat 6: FrAnWaN ($26.90 in chips)
Seat 7: supermartin1 ($14.30 in chips)
Seat 8: bmagoo ($29.30 in chips)
Seat 9: DrogbaIsSick ($13.75 in chips)
ErinJeff: posts small blind $0.10
FrAnWaN: posts big blind $0.25
aintitkewl: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ErinJeff [Ad 7h]
supermartin1: folds
bmagoo: folds
DrogbaIsSick: calls $0.25
Fred4BadBeat: folds
cnemani: folds
IUsux: folds
ErinJeff: calls $0.15
FrAnWaN: checks
*** FLOP *** [7c Th 3s]
ErinJeff: bets $1
FrAnWaN: folds
DrogbaIsSick: calls $1
*** TURN *** [7c Th 3s] [8s]
ErinJeff: bets $2
DrogbaIsSick: calls $2
*** RIVER *** [7c Th 3s 8s] [Ac]
ErinJeff: bets $4
DrogbaIsSick: raises $4 to $8
ErinJeff: ??

[Muck]

Looks a lot like a set (maybe AT but you’re behind to that too).

The trouble is these cold calls (or check calls) followed by a river raise always set off alarm bells for me. What could he be drawing too? 69 and 9J look unlikely and the flop was a rainbow.

I might make a crying call 40% of the time hoping he’s playing a pocket pair badly or making a crazy bluff.

[Jauron]

Set him in, he's got nothing back. We can beat a lot of hands here and he's short.

Did you over-bet the pot on the flop?

[odlozilik]

You might encourage him to slowplay something by overbeting the flop (do you do this often?). But the fold is out of option, you still beat many hands, some donks would even chase ace high and raise the river with naked ace.

[ErinJeff]

I marginally overbet the flop on a limped around hand that looks blind friendly. 4BB into a 3BB pot. Whether I'm bluffing, semi or have a made weak hand I generally bet out strong on these types of flops. Mistake?

[MrDarling]

One of the most important thing to learn in poker is not to get stacked in limped pots often.

Now there is really no reason to over bet this pot. What are you trying to achieve by doing this with middle pair?
This is a way ahead/way behind situation. If you are ahead, at best opponent have 8 outs to beat you.now since this is a limped pot we have really little info about his hand.
Now the turn his not great actually. it hits a lot of the hands the float us on this flop. Now by betting you are turning your hand into a bluff. As most of the times you'll never get called by worse here (if you have other reads about said villain then its a different sotry)

On the river you have to call, though I'm not loving it (sure you can put him in).
There is no real reason for him to raise AT at any stage of this hand and its a decent part of his range. As well as straight, sets, lower two pairs and naked A.

Thats why you try to avoid getting into big pot, with marginal hands out of position.

[Kemics]

AT probably would have re-raised to shut out draws, especially considering preflop.

have to call just because we're getting good odds.

[ErinJeff]

One of the most important thing to learn in poker is not to get stacked in limped pots often.

Agreed.

Did you over-bet the pot on the flop?

So a 3BB bet is better here than 4BB? Not this specific hand, but in general? I don't really see this as much of an overbet, but the point is taken that a PSB should be standard here.

Now the turn his not great actually. it hits a lot of the hands the float us on this flop.

A lot, really? 78, 89, 9T are the only obvious ones I see, and I beat these on the river A. I could see a set doing this, but they usually raise the turn.

Set him in, he's got nothing back. We can beat a lot of hands here and he's short.

Yeah this is what I did after thinking a bit. Oh well.

Results:
Thanks for the analysis.
ErinJeff: raises $4 to $12
DrogbaIsSick: calls $2.50 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($1.50) returned to ErinJeff
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ErinJeff: shows [Ad 7h] (two pair, Aces and Sevens)
DrogbaIsSick: shows [Jh 9d] (a straight, Seven to Jack)
DrogbaIsSick collected $26.40 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $27.75 | Rake $1.35
Board [7c Th 3s 8s Ac]
Seat 1: Fred4BadBeat folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: cnemani folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: IUsux (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: ErinJeff (small blind) showed [Ad 7h] and lost with two pair, Aces and Sevens
Seat 6: FrAnWaN (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 7: supermartin1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: bmagoo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: DrogbaIsSick showed [Jh 9d] and won ($26.40) with a straight, Seven to Jack

[miaowmiaowchowface]

I: fold preflop, bet less on the flop (or check), check turn.
As played crying call river, I doubt you're ahead much, but you still beat some hands in his range

[Jauron]

Pot sized bet is too much on this flop and most flops. 1/2-3/4 pot is standard betting.

Turn is bad card because if we put him on straight draw he either hit it or paired up the 8 making our hand no good.

If he had a full stack I'd be much less inclined to 3-bet this river. I hate opening back up betting vs unknown villain who is not aggressive and suddenly mini-raising me. Him being short I'm not sure it matters if we just call or set him in.

[kingetje]

reraising the river is completely unnessecary

[MrDarling]

reraising the river is completely unnessecary

looking at it again I agree. I thought its only $2.50 at first, but its actually 10BB. Which is a lot to save if you are beaten.


Again, look at board texture before deciding the bet size. On such a dry flop there is no need to bet the full pot. Especially when your hand is so weak you don't want to bloat the pot when playing OOP.

As for your turn bet, you are being result oriented . There is no reason to bet this turn. Every legitimate hand he peeled with on the flop as now improved and is better then yours. If he floated you with just over cards and want to bluff you on the turn let him. Just remember to include c/r the turn with real hands if he does it a lot (ie float flop, bet turn)
There is really no need to fight too much on those small limped pots.

[Felting]

98s, J10, or a set,

damn, I was close

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

Not saying this is for sure a fold, but the "culture" at 25NL and 25PLO has suggested to me that a river raise is almost always a huge hand, and against a "real" hand, you have nothing more than a bluff catcher.

A good question would be if we could fold bottom set here.

[ErinJeff]

A good question would be if we could fold bottom set here. Wink

No way I could, getting almost 5:1 on my set against minraiser with a VPIP of 56.