Should i be folding this AK pf?

[jimmer]

90'ish players left. PeKePrO has played tight. He's pushed all-in on three occasions-all preflop. He had AK, KK and QQ. Knowing this my question is;

Even though I have AK, I've got to put him on AA-QQ or AK, which means I'm an underdog. Therefore I should fold this hand right?

PokerStars Game #35745704442: Tournament #215268061, $4.00+$0.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2009/11/23 12:38:13 ET
Table '215268061 14' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Gribnogrib (7135 in chips)
Seat 2: jbdb3 (2755 in chips)
Seat 3: Eddy_Arent (2730 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: PeKePrO (2710 in chips)
Seat 5: troutfish123 (2395 in chips)
Seat 6: goje0108 (3555 in chips)
Seat 7: arn r (4982 in chips) out of hand (moved from another table into small blind)
Seat 8: kuklov (1830 in chips)
Seat 9: GoWhiskey (3000 in chips)
kuklov: posts small blind 50
GoWhiskey: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jbdb3 [Ks As]
Gribnogrib: calls 100
jbdb3: raises 200 to 300
Eddy_Arent: folds
PeKePrO: raises 2410 to 2710 and is all-in
troutfish123: folds
goje0108: folds
kuklov: folds
GoWhiskey: folds
Gribnogrib: folds
jbdb3: ????

I've got a feeling miaowmiaowchowface will disagree, but if any of you say 'call' I'd be interested in your thoughts why.

[HalfSugar]

In a $4 180-man SnG, it's so rarely going to be AA or KK that I think it's just up to you whether you want to flip on this hand. Personally I'd flip since his range is probably 88-QQ and any big ace.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

good feeling

[jimmer]

I've got a feeling miaowmiaowchowface will disagree,

good feeling

but ........I'd be interested in your thoughts why.

Tell us then?

He's tight, I think I'm an underdog, at best 50/50, if I lose this coin flip I'm effectively out.

Can you see where I'm coming from or is it a definate "I would never throw this hand away in a million years Jimmer - shut up and move on" moment?

[miaowmiaowchowface]

basically u sound like u know its wrong but u do it anyway. I don't really want to get into the details because this is a fold even the most most basic of players would know is awful. its less than 30bb man jesus grow a pair and put the money in

[jimmer]

basically u sound like u know its wrong but u do it anyway.

No. knowing what I'd seen from him so far, I think it is the correct move.

Add that to the fact that I'm consistantly told to get my money in the middle in any +Ev spot, by the very definition - I should be folding when I don't believe it is a +Ev spot.

Yet, apart from saying that I should be calling this because I have less than 30bb, you haven't suggested any reason why I should call this one.

I understand half sugar believes I should be putting him on a wider calling range, but I'm still only ahead against Ax.

May be I will remain "the most basic of players" until players like you explain the theory behind why I should call this one, even though most of my "basic playing evidence" points to folding.

[jimmer]

Ok, i've taken the dogs for a walk an worked out this is the key to my decision right?.................

its less than 30bb man.......

• Your thought process takes into consideration that to go deep in a tourney, you need a big pile of chips right?
• In turn, you consider anything less than 30bb (or an M of 20) to be push or fold territory.
• Which now means you have a coin flip of either building a big stack (and therefore having a good chance of going deep) or bumming out.

So, the over riding factor in this hand, is not the read on the other player, it's your opinion on;

• the amount of chips required to have a real opportunity to progress in this tourney v's playing push or fold poker????

[miaowmiaowchowface]

you don't really have a read on this player, u just saw him show up with strong hands a few times. He's probably nitty-ish, but you have nowhere near the sample to show.

Basically saying he's only shoving AA or KK is 96% wrong, because he's probably shipping AQ and maybe AJ, as well as pairs, which ur flipping with. He has AA and KK not much because u have AK as well. as well as that, theres 550 dead in the middle which adds to ur equity a significant amount. as well as this, if u don't get ur money in now, when are u gonna get it in? u gotta make some chips somewhere, you can't just wait for a lock all the time. there is variance in poker, u have to accept it (this is one of cisos extreme flaws as well, and you both seem to play like total pussies because of it, though i doubt he or anyone could find a fold here rly)

[jimmer]

you don't really have a read on this player, u just saw him show up with strong hands a few times. He's probably nitty-ish, but you have nowhere near the sample to show.

Basically saying he's only shoving AA or KK is 96% wrong, because he's probably shipping AQ and maybe AJ, as well as pairs, which ur flipping with. He has AA and KK not much because u have AK as well. as well as that, theres 550 dead in the middle which adds to ur equity a significant amount. as well as this, if u don't get ur money in now, when are u gonna get it in? u gotta make some chips somewhere, you can't just wait for a lock all the time. there is variance in poker, u have to accept it (this is one of cisos extreme flaws as well, and you both seem to play like total pussies because of it, though i doubt he or anyone could find a fold here rly)

thank you. That now makes sense

[stringman]

I would not call here because you have not seen anything to indicate you are ahead or have at best a flip based on his past play. You are not in trouble with your M so why move here? If your powers of observation are right which I assume it is then the best you have is a flip when you are not in any type of trouble. Wait for a better opportunity or when you know he pushes with less than you have stated.

[REDMAN]

I am very adverse to 50/50 situations and i call here. His range is much larger that you think and may not even include AA's of KK's. If he is A week then not only are you a faverate you are dominating him.

[Northern Hillbilly]

If you think you are the under dog then FOLD. If you have KK preflop and someone goes all in and YOU put them on AA FOLD

Any time you put someone on a hand better then yours you should fold. You maybe wrong and would of folded the winning hand. But you will kick yourself in the ass if you thought you were beat made the call and found out you were right.

[Ensano]

problem is you can NEVER put someone on a specific hand...

if you're playing and you tend to put people on specific hands PF then you're a bad player that is too full of yourself and need a reality check..
(omage to supa )...


you should be assigning ranges...

i thinks villians range here is QQ+ maybe AK...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.904% 22.62% 19.28% 8133909 6934104.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 58.096% 38.81% 19.28% 13956267 6934104.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


if you call final pot will be 5670

equity is 2375 so calling 2410 to win 2375 = no good...

even if you add in JJ you get 2427 so still a no go since you have no need to take a risk just yet...

[REDMAN]

The villian over bet the pot 2700 in to like a pot of 400. Do you realy think AA or KK's are in his range. Who does not want to get some value out of those hands. His range is more like 75% chance he has JJ's, 10's or 9's. A good but vunerable hand. and AK, Ax or some other smaller pair taking up the rest of his range. You can argue that that you fold here because you do not want to race if you want but you cant assign a range of even high pair or better because of a couple of hand. It is clear he does not want a call with this over bet.

[HalfSugar]

I'd snap this 100% of the time with such a small read to go on.