Sick spot, FT bubble

[mortaleclipse]

Villain has been running 26/16 over 44 hands. Only 10 players left out of a field of 1065

PokerStars Game #19581289149: Tournament #100867895, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVIII (2500/5000) - 2008/08/13 - 05:54:44 (ET)
Table '100867895 52' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Mortal420 (252741 in chips)
Seat 3: aldalas frie (373875 in chips)
Seat 5: milehicharli (69477 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: El Wapote (108822 in chips)
Seat 9: DETROIT.Reg (102004 in chips)
Mortal420: posts the ante 500
aldalas frie: posts the ante 500
milehicharli: posts the ante 500
El Wapote: posts the ante 500
DETROIT.Reg: posts the ante 500
aldalas frie: posts small blind 2500
milehicharli: posts big blind 5000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mortal420 [Kh Kd]
aldalas frie said, "YEAHAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
El Wapote: folds
DETROIT.Reg: folds
Mortal420: raises 7999 to 12999
aldalas frie: calls 10499
milehicharli: folds
*** FLOP *** [Qs Jd 9s]
aldalas frie: bets 50000
Mortal420: ??)

[miaowmiaowchowface]

this is std in cash games, don't see how it can't be in shortstacking

sry didn't look that closely, I guess it isn't that standard, but I'm still getting it in regardless. Pretty sure it's + EV, but i think in tourneys you have to adjust between if u want to win and if you want to cash I guess? If u want to just cash I suppose you should simply fold, tho I don't like it

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

How likely is this guy to fire the turn again if we flat? I don't see him betting into you with a set/straight very often given that you raised PF, he flatted, and you both have decent stacks.

This is a spot I might actually just call, wait for a safe card on the turn, and see what he does. That would still leave you with 175K+ even if you fold the turn. What I'm most worried about here is him betting a naked ten and trying to get you to fold.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

How likely is this guy to fire the turn again if we flat? I don't see him betting into you with a set/straight very often given that you raised PF, he flatted, and you both have decent stacks.

This is a spot I might actually just call, wait for a safe card on the turn, and see what he does. That would still leave you with 175K+ even if you fold the turn. What I'm most worried about here is him betting a naked ten and trying to get you to fold.

I think once we call we are committed because theres a good chance he's double barrelling his ten, and it's unlikely he holds air here, so I'm gonna raise or fold

[HalfSugar]

Fold or insta all-in depending on the player. AQ and KQ are calling here.

[mortaleclipse]

this is std in cash games, don't see how it can't be in shortstacking

sry didn't look that closely, I guess it isn't that standard, but I'm still getting it in regardless. Pretty sure it's + EV, but i think in tourneys you have to adjust between if u want to win and if you want to cash I guess? If u want to just cash I suppose you should simply fold, tho I don't like it

Not bubble for money but for final table. Well my thoughts on it, his stats and his plays shown hes not spewing chips around. If he was playing 36/8 or something I probably insta ship and not even post.

One thing that sent a red flag off was his huge flop bet. Yea could be AQ or KQ but im not sure this guy would be completely bombing the flop like that. I think there is alot of hands that beat me that could be in his range.

That doesnt really have anything to do with results but at the time my thought process. I think calling here isnt the best plan cause to many turns could scare us away even if we are winning. With the information I had, folding might be a decent option but probably -EV. It probably more of a gut fealing at the time the hand went down, just didnt feal right.

[Yozman]

RAISE MORE PREFLOP, make it 20k

the oversized flop bet makes me think a pair and a T or 2 pair afraid of straight. u hav 12k in pot, 240 behind (only 5% of stack) and he has you covered. im probably laying this down. yes this is probably -ve but i hate this flop