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Standard preflop fold with AKo?

Analysis of specific hands and general game theory
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14 posts • Page 1 of 1

Standard preflop fold with AKo?

Postby ErinJeff » Sat Mar 08, 2008 11:49 pm GMT

The original preflop raiser is a total minriase UTG idiot with stats of 58/50/1.9 over about 30 hands. The reraiser is 50/12/4 over only 14 hands. My plan was to 3bet isolate against the original raiser but when I got preempted by the raise to 20BB I reconsidered. I expected a push from raiser 1 given how he had been playing. My question, is this a pretty standard fold preflop facing a largish 3bet ahead of me? What if I don't expect a push from raiser 1? Thanks for your thoughts.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $20
Hero (BTN): $24.30
SB: $17.50
BB: $17.45
UTG: $24.65
UTG+1: $17.35
MP1: $9.55
MP2: $8.85

CO posts $0.25
Pre-Flop: A:spade: K:club: dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, MP1 raises to $1.75, MP2 folds, CO raises to $5,
HERO??
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Postby gumbie » Sat Mar 08, 2008 11:53 pm GMT

Push please
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Postby Jernej Zorec » Sun Mar 09, 2008 1:09 am GMT

and shove twice on Sunday
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Postby Felting » Thu Mar 13, 2008 1:38 pm GMT

We are a serious dog to just two hands, AA and KK. We are a slight dog to PP's but there should be enough dead money after we push to cover that and we are way ahead of any unpaired hand other than AKs.

Most likely range for player 3betting AA-1010, AK to AJ.

Yep it looks like a Push to me.
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Postby Ciso_B » Fri Mar 14, 2008 8:50 pm GMT

Really, shove. Surprised everyone thinks a shove is good here. He raised huge pre flop so you know they only playing back with very strong hands. Eh I dunno, Im not saying I wouldn't shove for sure or not. Just not an insta shove for me here. But then this is very low stakes, maybe they're bad enough to re pop you here with crapper hands.
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Postby Felting » Fri Mar 14, 2008 9:42 pm GMT

Ciso_B wrote:But then this is very low stakes, maybe they're bad enough to re pop you here with crapper hands.


That's the key, at that level you are as likely to see KJ or A8 as cowboys or rockets.
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Postby MrDarling » Sat Mar 15, 2008 6:28 am GMT

I do not agree that this is an automatic push.

The idiot minraiser actually made a more then normal big raise, which to me very often mean a biggish hand (readless, especially someone who min raise a lot) so I put his range TT+, AQ+ ...
Hard to put the 3 bettor on a hand since the sample size is small, but at these stake I'll assign the same range to him...

If this was higher stakes this will be an easy fold (or maybe sometimes calling if you think there is a good chance MP will not push) the problem is not what they folding, the problem is what are they calling you with. In low stakes they will call with AJ+ and probably TT+, so I think without any specific reads, it makes this play natrual EV...
In higher stake where most of the time you will only get called when crushed, makes this move bad IMO.
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Postby gumbie » Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:16 am GMT

Neither of these players has a full stack.
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Postby tame_deuces » Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:35 am GMT

Easy shove.
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Postby tame_deuces » Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:39 am GMT

MrDarling wrote: In higher stake where most of the time you will only get called when crushed, makes this move bad IMO.


Not with these stack sizes and pot sizes no, it would actually be pretty golden.

That being said, with these odds it takes a horrible player to fold much vs our shove anyway.
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Postby MrDarling » Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:41 am GMT

I have to admit I missed few things from the HH.

MP+1 Stack size and the fact that CO posted a live blind.
Yep in this case a push is correct.

My point was for a normal 100BB effective stacks against semi decent players.
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Postby Jernej Zorec » Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:50 pm GMT

decent players have wider range makes move a good one again
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Postby ErinJeff » Wed Apr 09, 2008 2:21 pm GMT

The mob wisdom is right as usual.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $20
Hero (BTN): $24.30
SB: $17.50
BB: $17.45
UTG: $24.65
UTG+1: $17.35
MP1: $9.55
MP2: $8.85

CO posts $0.25
Pre-Flop: A:spade: K:club: dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, MP1 raises to $1.75, MP2 folds, CO raises to $5, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $9.55 and is All-In, CO calls $4.55

Flop: ($19.45) T:heart: K:heart: 9:spade: (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: ($19.45) 2:club: (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($19.45) K:spade: (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $19.45 Pot ($0.95 Rake)
CO showed J:spade: J:club: (two pair, Kings and Jacks) and WON $18.50 (+$8.95 NET)
MP1 showed J:diamond: T:diamond: (two pair, Kings and Tens) and LOST (-$9.55 NET)
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Postby ErinJeff » Thu Apr 10, 2008 12:01 pm GMT

{ AsKc } 40%; { JcJs } 43%; { JdTd } 17%
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