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the long term pot odds for drawers?

Analysis of specific hands and general game theory
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the long term pot odds for drawers?

Postby soundmun » Wed Dec 02, 2009 2:44 pm GMT

I got me thinking, If say I have to pair and I put my opponent on a flush\ strait draw, and he has 32% odds, the "right" thing to do is not let him get his pot odds by betting higher than his break even point . BUT , this also means I have 68% of winning so why not betting a smaller amount and getting him to call? what would be long term profitble way to go here?
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Re: the long term pot odds for drawers?

Postby crack » Wed Dec 02, 2009 3:21 pm GMT

If you give him the right odds to draw out on you I.E betting less than "32%" of the pot then it is profitable for him to call in the long run. Remember though, he is only likely to hit his flush 30% of the time with two cards to come so will have to likely face two bets if it doesn't come on the turn.
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Re: the long term pot odds for drawers?

Postby soundmun » Wed Dec 02, 2009 5:13 pm GMT

well, this ofcourse is obvious but point is u still will win 68% of those pots so why not letting him call?
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Re: the long term pot odds for drawers?

Postby odlozilik » Thu Dec 03, 2009 1:34 pm GMT

Well, in my experience it's mostly almost impossible not to let players call with flush draw (some may even call open push), so don't be affraid they wouldn't call if you bet closed to pot size.
It's even more profitable to play the draw aggressive (raising), especially in loose shorthanded games, getting solid fold equitty.
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Re: the long term pot odds for drawers?

Postby soundmun » Thu Dec 03, 2009 8:59 pm GMT

odlozilik wrote:Well, in my experience it's mostly almost impossible not to let players call with flush draw (some may even call open push), so don't be affraid they wouldn't call if you bet closed to pot size.
It's even more profitable to play the draw aggressive (raising), especially in loose shorthanded games, getting solid fold equitty.

prblm is if u bet close to pot size its still give them balanced odds for a call. i ask what would be long term profitble - betting value bet that will make him call or pushing him out with more than a pot bet?
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Re: the long term pot odds for drawers?

Postby odlozilik » Thu Dec 03, 2009 10:33 pm GMT

If you don't give your opponent implied odds by calling them when flush hits, value betting is better, because you win much more money when it misses than you lose if it hits.
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Re: the long term pot odds for drawers?

Postby HalfSugar » Fri Dec 04, 2009 3:59 am GMT

soundmun wrote:prblm is if u bet close to pot size its still give them balanced odds for a call.

No it doesn't, that's only true if they hit on the next card. People call loose because they don't consider that they are a ~2/1 dog on the flop with two cards to come. They are a ~4/1 dog to hit on the next card at either the flop or turn.
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Re: the long term pot odds for drawers?

Postby soundmun » Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:30 am GMT

so what youre saying? that a value 1/3 1/2 the pot is better for the one with the high pair? and if its good for him, the drawer should not cal when making a value bet?
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