TPTK facing turn minraise

[ErinJeff]

These situations come up every now and then and I know the answers will be (and need to be) read specific, so I'm looking more for how you might play this, rather than how to ALWAYS play this. Part of my confusion on this hand is that the Vstack size is awkward and I am OOP. After his minraise he has <1/3 PSB left.

Villain in this hand is 26/5/1.7 over 90 hands. I've twice seen him check around 2nd pair on the flop OOP and call a midbet on a nonscary turn. His showdown hands include a limped K6s in MP and a limp call 5x pf AJo UTG.

POKERSTARS GAME #16855878115: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/04/19 - 23:29:21 (ET)
Table 'Messina' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: upthemuckski ($20.45 in chips)
Seat 4: ezy-ezy777 ($25.20 in chips)
Seat 5: MaddesZoggt ($37.90 in chips)
Seat 6: bustmethods ($25 in chips)
Seat 7: awtiger ($11.85 in chips)
Seat 8: fiddler75 ($24.10 in chips)
Seat 9: ErinJeff ($31.15 in chips)
MaddesZoggt: posts small blind $0.10
bustmethods: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ErinJeff [Qd As]
awtiger: folds
awtiger leaves the table
fiddler75: folds
ErinJeff: raises $0.75 to $1
upthemuckski: calls $1
ezy-ezy777: folds
MaddesZoggt: folds
rubedeb34 joins the table at seat #3
bustmethods: folds
*** FLOP *** [5d Qs 9d]
ErinJeff: bets $2
upthemuckski: calls $2
*** TURN *** [5d Qs 9d] [4s]
ErinJeff: bets $5
upthemuckski: raises $5 to $10
ErinJeff: ??

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

Push or fold. And absent any outside information, fold. You have shown nothing but strength the whole way and he has just committed his stack.

Btw, I would probably check the turn to try and keep the pot small.

[ErinJeff]

Checking the turn gives FD a free card and allows hands I beat, KQ, QJ, AK, JT etc to draw. I agree that the minraise puts me to a push/fold situation.

Anyone else c/f TPTK here?

[kingetje]

if he's extremely bad on the aggro side and or especially spewy (in which case i enjoy a CRAI on turn) or have some read that he has a FD i like this bet


but otherwise, what DC said

Btw, I would probably check the turn to try and keep the pot small.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

I think checking the turn is missing out on a tonne of value. These guys will call you down with basically anything. To the raise though, I lay this down.

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

I think checking the turn is missing out on a tonne of value. These guys will call you down with basically anything. To the raise though, I lay this down.

What you said is contradictory. If your plan is to bet and fold to a raise, then your value bet is not really that strong, which is the primary reason for keeping a pot small.

The more one pair hands you play, the more you will see the value in keeping the pot small. TPTK is not a hand to celebrate over.

[TheSalche]

IMO you can get more value by checking the turn, having it checked through and then betting a blank river. You'll get 2nd and 3rd pair hands to look you up this way, since your hand looks more like a bluff or missed draw.

Our line for checking the turn is c/c then c/f river unimproved.

[ErinJeff]

IMO you can get more value by checking the turn, having it checked through

I see exactly where you guys are coming from, but say I check (I'm OOP BTW) and villain bets pot. Easy call? I guess i like being in control on a "safe" turn with TPTK, and a possible st8 and flush draw.

Are you saying you would play TPTK this way against anyone who calls a PSB on the flop and seems to not be a moron? This seems like a passive line to me and most frequent posters here usually are MORE aggressive than I tend to be. Is it motivated by the "result" that I got c/r on the turn?

If this comes across as contrary or flip, it's definitely not meant that way.

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

Checking the turn and responding to a bet with this kind of hand is actually one of the toughest, yet most common decisions a player faces. I wish I could give you a solid piece of advice regarding this situation, but it honestly varies.

Use the commitment threshold as a standard: is calling the bet going to commit you? If yes, then you should only call (or preferably, raise) if you believe you will have the best hand if you get all-in. If not, then maybe you can get away with re-evaluating on a later street, as your hand is certainly better than a large number of holdings that could have called you on the flop. What you do NOT want to do is put in like 1/3 of the effective stack with absolutely no plan for the river.

Check, see if he bets, look at the stacks, and then decide what to do. This is one situation where some players like to bet "to see where they are." The problem is, this frequently accomplishes nothing but giving you a headache if the guy raises--he has told you that you're behind, but if you aren't sure you believe him, what was the point of betting in the first place?

This hand is very illustrative of the value of position. If you had position on this guy and he planned a check-raise, you could have foiled his plan by checking behind and eliminated a round of betting, preventing him from getting value on a good hand and wiping out a lot of his bluffing equity for the river.

[MrDarling]

Though I do agree that sometimes its good to pot control with one pair hands I do not think this is one of them. This is a very drawy board and villain can peel the flop with tons of hands. I hate giving a free card or giving up on this kind of board without a fight.

I bet and probably fold to the raise pending any reads. Though I can see him playing a hand like TsJs or even KsJs the same way, and will not be surprised to see KQ or QJ. I'm not invested enough and my hand can't really improve that much.

[TheSalche]

Though I do agree that sometimes its good to pot control with one pair hands I do not think this is one of them. This is a very drawy board and villain can peel the flop with tons of hands. I hate giving a free card or giving up on this kind of board without a fight.

I looked back at my post, looked at MrD's and I see his point . . . and I'm still torn as to what the "right" play is. Theoretically autobet/folding is really exploitable, but at low stakes you don't play the same people enough to justify this metagame argument. I think what got me is when I looked back at the villain's stats. This villain has the type of stats that suggest their calling with weaker, but medium strength hands, and raising with stronger ones.

That being said, the range you are behind is sets and Q9, but the villain's range is weighted towards those rather than semi-bluff hands.

This is also Baluga theorem-ish.

[MrDarling]

...Theoretically autobet/folding is really exploitable,

How can bet/folding be exploitable?
Especially when you 2nd barrel the turn?

[ErinJeff]

This is also Baluga theorem-ish.

I had to look it up...

BelugaWhale Theorem - When you are the preflop raiser and your turn bet is raised or check/raise, it is time to re-evaluate one pair hands.

Reasoning: In raised pots, most players will just call down with one pair (be it pocket pair or top pair) type hands as well as draws. The turn is where most players who flopped a monster stop slowplaying and try to build pot. Or, they raise if they hit their draw.

Application: A raise on the turn is a signal to re-evaluate where you are at. It is not and automatic fold but you need to consider if villain has a monster or just hit his draw.

Reliability: Against fish and bad players in general, with the exception sometimes of LAGs and maniacs, this is a VERY reliably theorem. However, it is also an extremely popular and well known theorem, perhaps the best known. A lot of good players, particularly 2+2 players can try to exploit this theorem, especially by floating. So depending on the player (a decent player who is ALSO capable of making a play) you may need to discount this theorem considerably.

Reference: http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...t=1&PHPSESSID=

[gumbie]

I prolly call the gay minraise and check fold/call river depending on betsize.

Although I think betfolding turn is prolly best against these loose semipassive ppl.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

I think checking the turn is missing out on a tonne of value. These guys will call you down with basically anything. To the raise though, I lay this down.

What you said is contradictory. If your plan is to bet and fold to a raise, then your value bet is not really that strong, which is the primary reason for keeping a pot small.

The more one pair hands you play, the more you will see the value in keeping the pot small. TPTK is not a hand to celebrate over.

before I say anything, I looked at this again and maybe dependent on mood I'd call the minraise and c/f the river -improvement. Some people do this to control the pot and such (it's exploitable by just pushing there and then, if you've seen them check behind the river before i reckon)

Anyway, I don't really understand what you're trying to say here. I see heaps of value. Flush draw, dodgy gutshot draw, any queens, and occassionally 9's or any pair, depending on how crappy the opponents are. And they really are that bad .

however, If this type of player (and I am generalizing, but we were given no info, and it's a pretty accurate generalization imo) all of a sudden switches out of callstation mode I'm getting pretty worried. Our hand has probably lost most of it's value, as his raise eliminated a lot of his calldown range.

or did I completely miss the point lol