Trips against strt board and flsh draw

[SDPokerDude]

Deep stack (10K) tourney, 100/200 level (round 4) no ante. 20 players left, avg stack about 13K. 7 players at the table. Table break has just been called for after this hand (not our table).

I am BB (seat 2), approx 10K

Seat 3 folds
Seat 4 (calling station) limps
Seat 5 folds
Seat 6 (solid) limps
Seat 7 folds
SB limps (big stack)
I have Qc7H Check

pot = 800

7c 7s 9c

SB checks
I bet 700 (I have a check-raise image)
4 folds
6 folds
1 raises to 1500
I call

Pot 3800

7c 7s 9c

Seat 1 bets 6K
I have a total of 8275 remaining.

Insight?

[HalfSugar]

Fold. You are beating nothing.

[Felting]

Yep this is a fold. You have 41 big blinds left if you fold.

Being a limp from the SB his range is as wide as it gets but his aggression helps narrow his range. One possibility is he holds the case 7, while our kicker is good, we are drawing to the 3 Q's if his other card is an A,K,9, or 6. Pocket 9's leave us chasing the case 7. Pocket 6's mean we need to catch the case 7, one of the 3 Q's, or one of the 3 9's. 10 8 and 8 5 leave us looking for the case 7, one of the 3 Q's, one of the 3 9's, or one of the 3 6's. The straights are less likely though due to his raise on the flop unless he was betting on the come. The only hands we are ahead of are the 7x hands not included above against which we are ahead and the favorite to win at showdown. Chance of a bluff here is small. Another, but much less likely holding would be 6x, 69 being the most, but still unlikely of those.

In a tourney, especially at the early stages of a deep stack one such at this, your main goal should be maintenance and survival. While a big double up is great early on it really doesn't mean much to your long term EV in a tournament. Just be patient early on and pick up pots when you can. If you happen to get a big hand by all means get it paid but its the latter stages of a tournament when the blinds are high and there's a lot of chips in the middle before the hands are even dealt where tournament success is to be found.

[SDPokerDude]

Seat one had been stealing a lot of pots lately, but had not been shown down on a bluff. I was fairly certain he would have raised pre-flop with A7, 99, or 66. That leaves K7, 67, 69, 8T or 58 as the only hands he could have that would beat me.

His HUGE bet also indicates that he does not have the boat, so I eliminated 79 and 76.

His flop bet tells me he does not have 58.

That leaves K7 or 8T, with 8T being less likely (he does not have a history of betting draws into dangerous boards).

Therefore, the only hand I was REALLY afraid of was K7...

[HalfSugar]

His HUGE bet also indicates that he does not have the boat, so I eliminated 79 and 76.

I wouldn't necessarily discount that every time. The big overbet seems to be quite the popular way to induce action lately but I think it is overused and somewhat ineffective against good players unless you are a super LAG player.

I think unless he's a very crazy player, this is a fold because there are just no two cards I can see him flipping over that lose with that bet on the turn.

[SDPokerDude]

Thanks for all the feed back. I appreciate it. Now for the results...

I shove (2275 additional - I was not going to call. I was either mucking or shoving)

He calls and flips 7J!!!!

I have him 81/7

1 guess what comes on the river.

[HalfSugar]

Is it ?

[miaowmiaowchowface]

haha, sick slowroll bad beat post

[SDPokerDude]

I was asking rhetorically, but it was a J.

Oh well. You make the right call, you get sucked out on; you stay with the draw, a blank comes.

Such is the life of a poker player, I guess