Value bet river

[Kemics]

PokerStars Game #25484637423: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2009/03/01 16:52:02 GMT [2009/03/01 11:52:02 ET]
Table 'Deikoon' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: DaveXster ($11.30 in chips)
Seat 2: ScorpioZZ ($18.25 in chips)
Seat 3: Kemics1 ($10.10 in chips)
Seat 4: Johnyj01 ($1.70 in chips)
Seat 5: bochen_79 ($11.55 in chips)
Seat 6: makareena ($10.10 in chips)
Seat 7: b.bby-s.x ($1.85 in chips)
Seat 8: Toshinger ($13.10 in chips)
Seat 9: Dark Scobra ($2.65 in chips)
Johnyj01: posts small blind $0.05
bochen_79: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kemics1 [5c 9c]
makareena: folds
b.bby-s.x: folds
Toshinger: folds
Dark Scobra: folds
DaveXster: folds
ScorpioZZ: folds
Kemics1: raises $0.20 to $0.30
Johnyj01: folds
bochen_79: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [Tc Jc 8c]
bochen_79: checks
Kemics1: bets $0.40
bochen_79: calls $0.40
*** TURN *** [Tc Jc 8c] [Td]
bochen_79: checks
Kemics1: bets $1
bochen_79: calls $1
*** RIVER *** [Tc Jc 8c Td] [7d]
bochen_79: checks

General line check and should i value bet the river or take a cheap show down.

I wasn't too sure here because if he's got a hand like Ace/King he's folding, but i could be crushed by high flush/boat slow rolling along (boat highly unlikely as i dont think any set is checking such a connected flop) but i thought most hands i beat are folding and i dont have the mortal nuts. But if he is a calling station i could extract value from someone unable to let go of a set/2 pair/tptk as he could just be playing passive.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

1.25$

[xDiamond_CutteRx]

He didn't raise either street. You gotta be for value. You can always fold to a raise, because he's c/r bluffing like never.

[Jauron]

Value bet and fold to C/R on river.

[odlozilik]

1.25$

Is it worthy to bet 38.5% of the pot to risk to get raised? I either check behind or bet closed to pot (at least 2.5$ here), in this case I bet.

[miaowmiaowchowface]

if u get raised ur beat

[JDRock]

I see the strategy matrix like this:

You're ahead: 1) he folds or 2) calls
You're behind: 3) he calls or 4)raises

1) may as well have passed
2) the only value added scenario
3) you lose the amount you bet
4) you have the option of folding to a raise, if so you also lose the amount you bet, if not you lose more.

Obviously, the amount gained from 2 has to outweigh both 3 and 4. That's where reads come in I guess.

Absent that information, I'd just pass. I don't think you're ahead often enough with a paired board to extract any value on the river.

[Jernej Zorec]

that seems likw very bad thinking
u are actually ahead very often and a lot of worse hands will just call u here, all str8s and trips will call u off

[Ensano]

a T pays you off always.. may even raise (at these stakes i don't know if I fold to a c/r)...

but you HAVE to bet at least 1/2 or more...

[gumbie]

Not betting this river is spew.