Very serious Betting Odds question?? Please Advise....

[jim nayzium]

I have been mildly successful in a few local "for charity" tournaments. I am using only math I have learned in school and read no books on hold'em. I am an accomplished bridge player and love cards in general though....

Here is my question....


We will use the flush draw as the example for simplicity...

I have pocket hearts...two hearts come on the flop...

THerefore I have nine outs and two chances...so 9 x 2 x 2 = 36 percent roughly...using the quick and dirty method of outs times 2 times number of cards left...(only works after flop.)

ANYWAy...i use this 36 percent to come up with the figure of roughly 2 to 1 on my outs...(33 percent)...

The pot odds before I see fourth street are 10 to 1, so of course I call...

Here is the crux of my question....

THe heart DOES NOT come on the turn....THerefore my new outs odds is 18 percent...or roughly 4 to 1....

LEt's say now the pot odds went from 10 to 1 to 4 to 1 (because of a raise before my turn...)

Well I had 2 to 1 to get my card based on teh pre turn/river math...now after the turn the math has changed....

If I used pre/turn/river math to place my bet, shouldn't I stay to see teh river???

Let's say for example the pot odds weren't 10 to 1, bc that is obvious, let's say teh pot odds were 2.1 to 1, so I stayed because I had 2 to 1 on my outs...

then after fourth street, I have 4 to 1 on my outs but the pot odds stay at 2.1 to 1....

Should I fold?? My assumption is yes....

BUT still 36 percent of the time I am going to get one heart on either of those two cards... half the time on the second card...half the time on the first card...somtimes on both....

So how do I let that math effect my fifth street bet??

Does this make sense?

[HalfSugar]

So how do I let that math effect my fifth street bet??

Don't take this wrong but I would say don't let it influence you too much! The problem with odds is that they can't take into account other factors such as how u have read the players u r up against at the table. If ur w8ing a flush and ur 2 hearts are high cards or u have already paired the board, u might have read the guy u r up against to be renowned for bluffing a lot and judge him to have nothing. In this case regardless of pot odds u might call bcos even if u don't hit ur flush u could beat him with ur high card/pair. That might not make sense, esp in an odds forum, but I don't think people should base their decisions solely on odds....

A good grasp of odds is necessary to a good poker player and pot odds are always vital to get some perspective but sometimes u just have to go with wot feels 'right' and take more factors into account like how the other player(s) have been playing. I'm rambling now, u get the picture - know ur odds but don't live by them

[LordDusty]

Here is what I think:

What you need to do is figure out the implied odds for the rest of the hand, not individual odds for each betting round. I don't think you stated, but I'm assuming the game is limit. So basically, you're gonna assume that the other player will raise again, thus making you call 2 more bets. So figure out the pot odds based on making 2 bets, and compare it to your 36% chance of hitting your flush. I believe that is the correct way to play it.

If you do as you did, and after missing the flush on fourth street reevaluate your odds, you are both correct and incorrect. You are correct in that it's no longer worth calling. But then you're making your previous call also incorrect because you made that bet assuming odds based on taking both cards. If you plan on folding the next bet if you don't hit your flush on fourth street, then you have to figure the odds accordingly.

[DocHolliday]

Your odds did change, but your previous decisions are not wrong because of the change in odds. Let's say you have two hearts and you hit two more on the flop. You are correct that you have 9 outs (35% with two cards to come). Forget other factors such as tells and what you may believe someone else to be holding (i.e., we're assuming if you hit the flush, you will win the pot no matter what the other players have). You are correct to call any bets that give you greater than 3 to 1 pot odds (or, even implied odds if you want to think about that, but that's a different subject altogether). Now, on the turn, you miss your heart. Another player bets, reducing your pot odds. Since the pot odds have changed, your bet (or call) on the flop was still the correct play based on the current information available to you. Now, you have new information available and must re-evaluate your chances with the pot odds. Let's say another player bets. You now have a 20% chance of hitting your flush on the river. If the pot gives you greater than 5 to 1 pot odds, call the bet. In short, the odds at any point in time during a hand may change, but the only thing that matters is your current decision, not the one previous because that money is already been potted.

Incidentally, the difference between limit and no-limit is the pot odds factor. If you can tell your opponent is drawing, you can calculate the pot odds for that player and determine how much to raise in no-limit to make that player fold (or at least, make it unprofitable for him to keep calling in the same situation repetitively). In limit, it is almost always profitable to call to the river with a 4-flush or open-str8 draw.

The Doc
"There's enough b.s. going around in this room, so flush it already."

[BeerWench13]

A good grasp of odds is necessary to a good poker player and pot odds are always vital to get some perspective but sometimes u just have to go with wot feels 'right' and take more factors into account like how the other player(s) have been playing.

I have to agree with this philosophy. A huge part of playing poker is not the odds, the outs or even the cards. It's your opponent(s). How many players were left in the hand after fourth street? Were they also possibly on the flush draw? How have they been betting prior to this hand?

The odds can help you if you're on the fence and don't know your opponent, but that's the only time that they really come into play (for me anyway). In other words, don't play your cards, play your opponent. If it's heads-up play and you only have one other opponent, assess what they may possibly be holding. If they've been betting out every hand, they're possibly an aggressive player who is trying to steal the pot on every hand. I've played players like this and they're counting on you factoring all of the odds and folding to their bet. Sometimes you just have to call to keep them honest, but wait for the hand that gives you a strong chance to win. I'm babbling now, but basically, in this situation, you have to assess your opponent, not the odds. Just my humble opinion, of course.