Bluffing Odds:
Using Odds During a Bluff
It's always good to look at poker from a mathematical
perspective, and that even applies to bluffing. You can determine finite
amounts and percentages that can tell you if it is a financially feasibly
good time to bluff. This is particularly useful when there are only
one or two players and the pot is rather large.
It's good to do these calculations with potential straights or flushes
that appeared on the river, that you were going for but you didn't make.
It's nice with a flop that starts with Heart, Heart, Spade, and ends
with Spade, Spade. You had two Hearts. Or a flop like Five, Seven, Eight,
and ends with Ten, Jack. You had a Six. It's also good because they
might have been on the same draw, which leads them to believe (also
from on odds perspective) that you were not on that draw.
Let's say that one of the above cases occurred in a $5/$10 game and
on the river there is $140 in the pot. Your only opponent checks to
you. If you check, you know you've lost. So you bluff. The reasoning
is that if you invest another $10, you're getting 14 to 1 odds. As a
percent that's around 7%. If they fold more than 7% of the time, you
make money in the long poker game of life. If not, it's a losing venture.
You still have to evaluate the player, but from a purely mathematical
standpoint, you get the picture. You can also evaluate it by reasoning
that they missed their draw more than 7% of the time and will fold.
If two players were involved in the pot, it cuts the odds in half. With
three, it becomes 1/3rd of 7%, etc. You can see why you want to bluff
against fewer players.
This can be unreliable though, as some players will stay in purely based
on pot odds. So when bluffing you cannot ever use just odds. Get a feel
for your opponents, and act accordingly.
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